Many investors complained about the weak price action of Bitcoin (BTC) in September. Many others had already exited the market before the summer break, following the slogan: “Sell in May and go away.” However, it appears that now may be the best time to refocus on the broad crypto and BTC market.
A well-known cryptocurrency market analyst, CryptoBirb published on X a short analysis of the historical returns that BTC generates in the following months of the year. According to him, September – historically the weakest month – is the best opportunity for market returns. It is followed by the two statistically most profitable months – October and November.
CryptoBirb: September Is a BTC Buying Opportunity
The last weeks of September can provide an excellent opportunity to buy Bitcoin. According to historical statistics, September is the only month of the year that, averaging the entire available history of BTC trading, has been loss-making. Therefore, CryptoBirb states:
“The second half of September is an insanely good opportunity to buy Bitcoin.”
At the same time, the analyst admits this thesis does not guarantee the best possible “buy the dip” opportunity in the ongoing week. It is purely a thesis based on statistical data that says nothing about future price action.
However, history often rhymes, especially in the cyclical Bitcoin market. Therefore, looking at the statistics of two consecutive months – October and November – CryptoBirb does not hesitate to point out probably the best time to take long positions on BTC.
Best $BTC buying opportunity ever coming in two days?
Here’s my urgent explanation with surprise👇 pic.twitter.com/F58UzBigBN
— Adrian Zduńczyk, CMT (@crypto_birb) September 24, 2023
Fourth Quarter of the Year: Biggest Returns for Bitcoin
To support CryptoBirb’s thesis, one can use statistics published by Coinglass. The analytics platform has detailed statistics on profit/loss in the BTC market in multiple time frames – from daily to quarterly.
First of all, it is worth noting that the fourth quarter of each year (October-December) is statistically the most profitable month of the year. Moreover, the third quarter (July-September) always follows the least profitable. Considering only this interval, it is obvious that the end of the third quarter is the best opportunity to buy BTC. These are precisely the ongoing last weeks of September.
Bitcoin quarterly returns / Source: Coinglass
Next, one can look at the monthly returns of Bitcoin trading. According to CryptoBirb’s observations, September is the reddest month of the year. In only two years – 2015 and 2016 – the month produced very small profits: 2.35% and 6.04%, respectively.
- Read More: Bitcoin (BTC) Price Prediction
In contrast, the next two months are completely different. October has closed in the red only twice so far – in 2014 (-12.95%) and 2018 (-3.83%). November, on the other hand, has been in the red 4 times – in 2018 (-36.57%), 2019 (-17.27%), 2021 (-7.11%) and 2022 (-16.23%).
However, even though November more often generated losses, that month’s profits were historically the largest. Therefore, the penultimate month of the year is statistically the most profitable. However, more conservative investors may pay more attention to October, which produced smaller but more stable profits and rarely minimal losses.
Bitcoin monthly returns / Source: Coinglass
Past Performance vs. Future Results
From the above data, CryptoBirb’s analysis is indeed accurate. The last days of September could be an excellent opportunity to buy Bitcoin. Especially when it seems that the long-term bear market has ended with the end of 2022.
However, one should always remember the maxim: “Past performance is not indicative of future results.” Historical data is a great source of knowledge and provides insight into the market.
Still, in the complex ecosystem of financial markets, it is only one of many components- and not the most important.
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